Data Blog

September 2014 Mountain Lakes NJ Real Estate TREAD Index Update

Welcome back from what has been a great summer here in Mountain Lakes.  Kids are back in school, Football season and the World Series approaches, and it is time to reflect on what has happened in Mountain Lakes real estate so far this year.

The response to the Mountain Lakes Realty Data Blog has been outstanding.  I was in Hapgoods (isn’t that place great!!!) recently and overheard two folks talking about the TREAD Index.  The Data Blog is now the most popular page on the BestofMountainLakes.com site.  Thanks for looking, and we hope to make the dialogue useful and informative.  If you would like to discuss any topic or have questions on the data please contact me at GinnyCassidy@remax.net.

But first lets talk about what industry trends mean.  All the data we discuss here, the TREAD Index, total sales, absorption rates, average home prices, Case-Shiller Index©, and any others are Macro trends.  They show what is broadly happening within the industry, the State, etc.  We make an effort in this blog to bring those trends down to what is specifically happening in Mountain Lakes.

These data can help you understand the health of the Mountain Lakes real estate market in town when you are looking to buy or sell a home.  Each home is different, however.  Each home is its own Micro market, where the decisions of home buyers and sellers are driven as much by the design, features, staging, location, marketing and layout of the home as they are by the Macro trends.  That is where the experience and creativity of the Cassidy Team can help make a difference!

Now for the update.  TREAD Index increased to 136%, showing the continued improved health of the market.  Activity in the fall is typically lighter, but as the TREAD tracks twelve months of data it should still provide a useful status on market trends as we enter the fourth quarter.  More information on the Index is found in earlier months’ blogs.
Now that we are almost through the third quarter lets look at total home sales year-to-date.  I caution you that in dealing with the small numbers of sales in our town it is sometimes easy to confuse randomness with trends, so take all these data with a grain of salt.

Total number of homes sold – Through August 57 homes have sold.  This compares with 50 last year.

Total number of homes sold in mountain lakes nj and sum of real estate expendature form 2013 to 2014

What does this tell us?  First, few homes went under contract near the end of 2012, resulting in very few sales to start 2013.  Through the first quarter there were 13 sales in 2014 against a mere 5 in 2013.  The situation reversed in the second quarter – 2013 outperformed 2014 in each month, with 26 sales in 2103 against 20 in 2014.
So through July the numbers were almost equal  - 41 sales in 2014 vs. 39 in 2013.  Then came a “huge” August this year, with 16 sales against 11 in 2013 (congratulations to the buyers, sellers and realtors involved!).  This gives us year to date numbers of 57 sales in 2014 against 50 through August in 2013 (and 37 in 2012).  Lets watch carefully over then next few months to see how the year ends.  In any event, all indices are pointing to a continued healthy, recovering market.

Next month – Average Sales Price.  What it is and what it means!

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